A rethinking and repositioning of power at PM Modi's Delhi has happened.
An aimless Note Ban by Finance Ministry and a reckless adventurism at Doklam by Defence Ministry cost Shri Arun Jaitley his 2nd in Command Position in the Indian Government heirachy and his Defence Portfolio.
Shri Rajnath Singh was almost at par with
Shri Arun Jaitley in influence but too many racial and social disturbances plus continuous security incidents bogged his image down. And now Shri Arun Jaitley too is pushed back but not out.
Now it is Shri Amit Shah who once again has gained his rightful position. He brought Modi the General Election as well as the following successes in state elections plus political upsets in Goa, Manipur, Bihar and possibly soon in Tamil Naidu. So during this Cabinet reshuffle, Prime Minister Modi had him selecting new Ministers and rejecting old ones.
Shri Amit Shah is a political genius. Whether he has national leadership in him or not depends, hereafter, on how India goes about in her dealings with SAARC Countries and the ability to deal with American demands and Chinese reality. His influence should now matter in PM Modi governance of India and India's attitude to the concerns of the neighbours and the region.
As a Bhutanese, I am most disappointed with Shri Arun Jaitley for sitting on the rupee note exchange regarding old rupee stock with Bhutan as Finance Minister of India. And most upset with him as Defence Minister of India for Doklam transgression. I wanted him to be replaced as Defence Minister. He was either weak or simply a war mongering fellow.
The Punjab election defeat for him seemed to have affected his intellectual bearing. He was quite a promising leader of BJP during the last UPA tenure. Now just an economic jumble bumble and political liability in regional sphere. How could such a brilliant mind and noted politician lose his bearing when he is almost at the summit. Maybe political altitude sickness if ever there is such an illness.
'For the Bhutanese, especially the younger generation who want economic development, they need to seize the Destiny in their own hands. That entails defying threats from New Delhi and voting for the party that can bring in aid, investment and tourist spending from China. Only they can free themselves from the shackles of being a de facto protectorate of India. And they must seize the moment, when the Belt and Road Initiative is in full swing.
ReplyDeleteFor the Chinese, it must be prepared to pay a price for its principled objection to India’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It must also recognise, and act accordingly, India’s opportunistic practices in foreign affairs. Like its new BFF America, India doesn’t give a hoot to bilateral treaties and international conventions.'
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/09/01/lessons-from-the-china-india-border-standoff/
It remains to be seen what it means by the Modi government's appointment of a new defense minister. On the surface it contradicts the victory most Indian news media is claiming from this Doklam standoff. The truth behind the scene may take years to reveal completely but India really needs to reflect how she acted this time. At the very least she invited the Chinese military attention back onto the India-Chinese border after so many years of China not paying much attention to it. This alone cannot be claimed as a victory. As far as the world can see in recent years, the Chinese approach to her border dispute has been very consistent: friendly negotiation for resolution even if it means losing some ground as a final result, or inching a step harder and further if the other party wants to take a hard line approach. This has been repeatedly shown in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. This time with India, China may have appeared somewhat soft on the particular site of Doklam, but she took advantage of this situation to forward deploy military positions which would have invoked a lot of alarms otherwise. And if anybody paid attention, the Chinese has also taken this chance to formally revert back to her 1959 stand for the India-China border issue, from which she backed away for about 20 km in an attempt to show goodwill to India after the 1962 Sino-India border skirmish. So if I were Modi, I would do the same thing and let the defense minister go. But what this new defense minister will behave, and whether or not it represents some tuning of Modi's approach to border issues, will remain to be seen.
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