In 2013, one major reason of PDP win was the solid turnover of DNT cream candidates to PDP in the General Election. They not only won their constituencies but also all became Cabinet Minister ranking in PDP government.
In this Primary, DPT won 22 constituency seats with around 90000 votes. And DNT with PDP won 25 constituencies with around 160000 votes. And this was followed by strong rumours that PDP leaders were asking supporters to back DNT against DPT in the General Election.
Some PDP supporters were baffled by the sudden teaming up as DNT President had even challenged PDP President as in " may need to ruffle up by the neck " and threatened PDP Party with " blooodshed and chaos " in 2023 if PDP won the 2018 election. Also DNT did not accept any PDP candidates into the Party fold for the final round. Still politics is politics. It lacks definite characters and therefore undergoes changes like monsoon weather.
By fate of fortune or misfortune, DNT stuck to the same candidates of Primary election though it had quite a few clear winners in PDP candidates. I had thought DNT would have a sure chance of winning if few PDP candidates were absorbed into DNT. And blogged about such a suggestion even though DNT President had already ruled it out. Such a winning combination seemed worthwhile a second consideration. But there was no reconsideration. I wonder if DNT Party had miscalculated into the 2nd place. But my take is only a personal view not a field study of voter mood. And DNT could very well have a hidden strategy.
Unless some unforseen change of situation snatch away DPT votes, it is unthinkable that DPT would be unable to add another 2 constituencies to its Primary 22. It could even add several more for a comfortable majority.
DNT had 16 constituencies in its pocket and there were 8 PDP constituencies excluding Sombaykha. The magic number of 24 constituencies with over 160000 votes were all there on a golden platter. But Dr. Lotay chose to walk alone possibly for two personal reasons.
1. Looks like the two Party Presidents have more personality clash than commonality. One is receipant of Lumar scarf from His Majesty and other the Druk Thusey Medal. The two seemed in equal royal favour and thus " the clash of the Titans ". So it seems that DNT President did not want the shadow of PM TT hovering over his Party pie. Protecting turf is denying any role direct or indirect to the competitor.
2. Also secondly, the DNT President was possibly lulled into a false sense of superior zone. He thought he could handle all. He had unexpectedly done superbly well in comparision to BKP President. His air of infallability was reinforced by the thumping Primary win. He failed to recognise that during the Primary, neither PDP nor DPT seriously attacked DNT. The two seasoned Party Presidents did not want to offend DNT supporters.
PDP was quite confident of grassroot support and DPT must have had a good take of its support base. So both were confident of coming through the Primary as winners. Thus they were careful not to offend supporters of BKP and DNT. Good will is crucial for General Election. In fact both DPT and PDP Presidents werw only defending their respective Party's past track record and laying out future plans during the Primary. DPT President was not even attacking PDP directly. This tactic of passivity might pay off in this final round.
Leadership:
Leadershipwise, Lyonpo Pema Gyamtsho is ofcourse well experienced to withstand the heat of election fireballs. DPT has been called all names and levelled all accusations. And he has been attacked from all sides. Moreover, he has had to navigate his leaderdhip as Party President and Opposition Leader under close watch of much more experienced and senior leaders and other able MP members. There is nothing worse than be branded disloyal and anti- King in a Kingdom where the King represent in essence the Tsawa Sum. So he has seen it all, heard it all, burdened under all. Thus DNT cannot fire any salvos that would un- nerve the DPT President . He has been cool as ever and approached the West, South and East with similar hope and confidence. And extreme North the highlanders is his Phd. home environment.
Dr. Lotay Tshering is several months into DNT Party Presidencyship. He was hauty and aggressive during Primary Election firing much of his salvos at PM Tshering Tobgay the President of PDP Party. His anti- establishment rhetorics and above all his high flying proposal of no exams and no merit standard for students till class XII caught the fascination of many parents who had school going children. Both rhetoric and pledge did wonders to eliminate PDP from the race.
Then in the ongoing final general round, things took not a u turn but definitely an unexpected turn and the new DNT leader found the going hard. He was reported to have choked with emotion whilst recounting allegations against him at Drametse, Monger in front of 30 people audience( courtesy Kuensel ). Maybe the meagre attendance un- nerved him The doctor who in all his professional life was used to humilities of folded hands and respectful bows of patients and relatives who were totally at the mercy of his kindness and professional skill as a urology surgeon could not digest the " arrogrance " of those who dared to challege his authority and questioned his political knowledge. His pledges were shredded as nothing but lies to deceive unwary voters.
It seems the good doctor had naively thought DNT manifesto was a " bible " beyond criticism and so he complained bitterly that DPT Party was challenging DNT manifesto and calling for accountability. He just failed to comprehened that final round was fire under the pan. It is an irony of contradiction that he who publicly issued threats to " ruffle up by the neck " or promised " bloodshed and chaos " was protesting attack on his pledges. Well Dr. Lotay learnt that Political Party opponents are nothing like anesthetized motionless body on his surgery table.
Dr. Lotay has much to learn and endure as a politician. He buckled under the election campaign's brimstone and fire attacks. The Eastern tour took the wind out of him when the push came to shove. He declared that DNT had no hopes of winning in the East? What he said maybe a fact but a Party President owes it to the candidates and supporters who are bravely contesting in the fields, not to dash their hopes with such finality. Maybe his distraught has to do with his loyalty to his staunch backers Tenzin Lekhpell and Karma Dorji who face daunting challenges in the East. In this I admire his loyalty.
Party pledges:
The Parties' manifestos differs in context and substance. DNT emphasised on getting the opportunity to govern and closing rich poor gap relying mostly on freebees but no substantive indication of how or where it intents to lead the nation or close the gap. DPT dwelt on experience and achieving self reliance through improving and increasing hydro projects. And promised equity and justice for both poor and rich.
DNT attacked DPT hydro pledges as increasing national debt. And cast doubts on DPT relationship with India the pivotal force behind Bhutan's hydro projects. Also PDP supporters have kept hammering upon the allegations that DPT Party was anti- Monarchy.
DPT Party in turn attacked the freebees offered by DNT as frivolous and unachievable or detrimental as follows:
a) The DNT pledge to provide assurred ladder to take students upto class XII without exams or set merit standard , suddenly became sure formula to failure in education quality. Turning out nuts ( lengos ) rather than talents ( yoentenchens ) after high school. Instead of helping children of poor families to acquire good education, the pledge was a lure to doomsday denying quality education to children of poor families who need good education to compete for limitted opportunities. Whilst the children of the rich only needed a paper degree obtained easily by ladder ascent because they do not need jobs to survive. Further this education pledge was also declared to be unconstitutional by DPT.
2. DNT pledged 6 months wages to rural mothers of new born babies. Sounded great for securing rural votes. I would go for all mothers in national goal to increase population. But on close scrutiny, the irony is that rural Bhutan is mainly populated by elderly people beyond child bearing age. The younger lots are in urban areas though their census are in their rural village. Most are working at some jobs. And they would not be covered by DNT pledge for those living and working on farms in villages.
3. The grand nationwide hospital plans just sounds too utopian and far off if promoted by anyone else. But professional zeal of Dr. Lotay does attract public enthusiasm. And Dr.Lotay can still count on the fruits of his surgery labour. His patients and their relatives would be with him. Not necessarily for his pledges but patients are grateful people by nature to their doctors. And they will repay his deeds of saving their lives or easing their pains with their votes. People largely appreciate the professional zeal of DNT President as a medical doctor and thus his popularity.
Party prospects:
Both DNT and DPT candidates have respective captive votes in groups of family members, relatives, friends in addition to many Party faithfuls and enemies of competing candidates. And there is the all valuable game changing PDP voters who may be still encouraged to vote against DPT. And margin influencing BKP supporters. So DNT prospect in the East may not be as bleak as made out to be by Party leadership. And DPT performance in the West and South may not be as dismissal as in the Primary.
It all hangs on the stamina, endurance and insights of the two contesting political party leaderships . Would the rather bruised and distraught DNT President be able to put together a last minute irresistable appeal to PDP supporters and the crucial swing votes of BKP Party faithfuls.
And how deep could Lyonpo Pema Gyamtsho and his DPT Party penetrate the West and South. Would South give DPT the highway vote and can Sombaykha constituency give its DPT candidate a cabinet berth. Maybe Layaps and Lunaps would positively answer the SOS call of their once Phd home resident and now the DPT President.
Ministerships:
I cannot predict cabinet posts for DNT or DPT candidates of other Dzongkhags. But Haa and Paro are close by and near enough to hazard a guess. If DNT wins at the centre then North Haa DNT candidate Dasho Ugyen Tenzing will be a sure cabinet member. And if Dasho Ugyen Tshering manages to surmount what looks an uphill task in North Paro, he too, will get cabinet berth.
And if DPT wins at the centre, its North Paro candidate former Local government chairman Phub Tshering will be a cabinet member if he comes through and he seems favoured to win. Now Haa has a different scene. I cannot imagine Dasho Ugyen Tenzing of DNT losing in North Haa. He has the Primary vote number and in addition PDP voters now freed from dedication to PM TT could also choose him purely on his seniority and proven ability. So I have had to evaluate the South Haa DPT candidate for a possible cabinet berth if DPT forms the Government. This possibility was spurred on when I read that Lyonpo Pema Gyamtsho during his recent visit to Sombaykha had told that candidate Tshewang Rinzin was a DPT Party faithful since 2008 and present Treasurer of the Party. And that cabinet posts will be evenly distributed region wise. Now the catch is will fellow South Haaps especially of Gakiling and Sombaykha stand by their native son as they did in supporting their other native son for NC? So Haa as a Dzongkhag could get a consolation minister berth in either ruling Party cabinet though PM post has been lost for this term.
Conclusion:
All said and done General Election may not turn out to be as exciting as Primary Election. As stated in the beginning, rejecting a winning combination formula by DNT could prove to be more costly than what it would have personally cost Dr. Lotay Tshering to acknowledge the help of President of PDP and his Party. But who can say for sure how it will shape out? Election is predictable until the evening when election results flow in and then the time to bury heads in palms or throw up arms in the air in joy or bewilderment!
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