Monday, November 18, 2019

India Loan financed flagship projects poses economic bleakness in Bhutan.

1. How did PHA I and II  mega hydroprojects fail. 

a) At PHA I,  the project killer is the sliding hill side. What causes hill sides to slide. Maybe someone should study the impact of continuous blasting of the hill base with high exlposives for long period of time. 

I know that there was suspicion of structures of ridge topTrongsa Dzong suffering damage from Mangdechu hydro project blastings. If that is true then hillsides of PHA I could also have been weakened by continuous high explosive blasting at the base of the hill. 

b) At PHA II, the project killer is the existence of a deep gorge like cavity over which a tunnel to carry water is aligned. Was it not possible to discover the existence of such a big cavity through some geo-infra- ray  techniques?  Something like dentist taking x'ray of a tooth and discovering cavity. Or maybe the cavity was a foreknown thing. 

Anyway the sliding hill side and deep cavity may very well kill Bhutan's economic prospects and our national self reliance dream. 

2. Dungsum Cement Plant, too,  was funded from loans mostly from India. It was cleared together with Tala Hydro Project by both Bhutan and Indian Governments.  The market for Dungsum cement Plant was projected to be the North Eastern States of India. But the project was delayed long enough to give time to those Indian NE States to increase their own cement production capacity. Thus today if not for Bhutan's own hydro project constructions, DCCL does not even have any assurred export market in India. And worse the teething  problems at the Plant built by Indian Companies are so disruptive that at times,  DCCL cannot even produce adequate supplies to meet internal demands. Ofcourse bad management, too , contribute to DCCL wooes. Dungsum cement plant has a very bleak future. Forget generating revenue for the Governmrnt, it is not even at break even point after several years of the  commissioning of the plant. 

Bhutan is saddled with 3 huge black hole projects PHA I& II and Dungsum that traps Bhutan in deep debt and far away from self reliance. 

Actually I think it makes good geo-political sense for India to keep dangling hopes and than dash it. That way Bhutan cannot get out of India dependence hang man noose. If I was India, I would promote joint mega projects with stated economic goals to help Bhutan. And then sabotage all such  India- Bhutan projects to defeat self reliance goal of Bhutan. Little Bhutan can get fisty if self reliant. 

3) Mangdechu Hydro Project is one India- Bhutan project recently commissioned. And the little smile on the countenance of Bhutanese economy is disappearing with phrases like " teething problems stopping electricity production is natural and expected at newly commissioned hydro projects". 

Well new Mangdechu hydroproject has " expected teething problems "  and old Chukha hydroproject naturally needs major repairs. So production is hampered at both the hydro Projects. Do not despair yet Bhutan democratic III govt.,  there is more to come.

3. Tawang to Trashigang motor road.

The first prolosal was made by Arunachal Chief Minister during early years of PDP governance. B4B!  My God what was Bhutan thinking in adopting Indian PM Modiji slogan. Fortunately that time, there was no takers for a highway from Tawang. The 2nd more recent call was made this year again by the Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh during a meeting with Bhutanese Consul General ( Sell out General ? ).

Some Bhutanese travel operators and innocent businessmen of the East got exicited a little. Yes the idea is sinking in. Reminds me of Lama Drukpa Kuenlay's Saying " Insist sufficiently and consent will be granted ". 

Well Southern Bhutan Highway was discouraged because that would have strengthened internal security of whole of  Bhutan. But Tawang-to-Trashigang highway can facilitate the division of East Bhutan from the West. Afterall it was not outside nations calling Eastern Bhutanese followers of " traitor DPT Party ". We Bhutanese people and our political leaders have been branding political Parties and voters as pro- King and anti- King. If we promote division among ourselves by  region and race , then why would not an outside force assist in the physical separation of the nation? 

Thank you and No Thank you economic dilemma. Not a cruel stab in the back. But a gentle gradual dark kiss of death. Such is the stealth that the Bhutanese Caesar cannot even say " even you Brutus" B4B. Well I think Caesar is as much to blame for trusting Brutus. 

Lama Kheno. Please Palden Drukpa look after Druk Yul. And make our leaders bravely wise. 




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