Sunday, October 8, 2017

Doklam and Dhokha ( Betrayal )

Indian foreign Secretary and United States Acting Ambassador in India made a joint  visit to Bhutan during the 1st week of October.  There is a photo of Mr. Jaishankar with His Majesty the King in Kuensel issue but nothing about the context of his visit. 

The foreign Secretary of India met with His  Majesty the King and the Fourth Druk Gyalpo as well as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Bhutan.

Bhutan was silent about the visit of the  American Acting Ambassador  at the same time as that of the Indian foreign secretary. 

There must be many reasons for their joint visit. But core objective has to be containing China which means curtailing Bhutanese national  freedom in external affairs and restricting internal policies and administration. 

India is a vast  democratic nation  and therefore,  the Indian media carried news of what Secretary Jaishankar accompanied by his Joint Secretary who looks after Bhutan and Nepal Desks could be discussing with Bhutanese top leaders. Here in Bhutan, we can only sort of guess what America and India wants Bhutan to do and what  they may have promised  in return.

I believe  it has to be a " carrot and stick " offer from India. I did not know of the Acting American Ambassador visit until the news in Indian media and tweet from the lady herself  ( MaryKay Loss Carlson ).  America would have  offered the usual  game of " cat and mouse ". Her offer is same to all weak tiny " political  toys " of America.

India's carrots  could consist of some relief in debt volume. Some dangling of better terms in hydropower deals and electrical sale price and immediate relief in stuck up  old Indian rupee notes in RMA vaults. And ofcourse guaranteed tenure for the most amenable Political Party in 2018. Plus less stoking of religious and ethnic sentiments among the  Bhutanese national society. 

And finally the axe offer of assurance of all deep respects for our Royal Institution. That would be in real essence somewhere along the line that the Indian Army Commanding General ( after his visit to Bhutan ) had on his fb wall to quote, " helping rulers to rule " under the photo of him with the Fourth Druk Gyalpo. He personally did not write the statement.  He just retained on his wall someone's else' s caption/ comment. 

The brashness and cruelty  of America and India to squeeze this mountain Kingdom of ours just to satisfy  their politics of slighting China is beyond political nastiness. It's bloody strangulation of Bhutan. Bhutan for them is only a pawn to snub China. They do not care what happens to Bhutan and her people. For them it is ' just use and throw away ' at their national convenience.

I pray that our Deities and our brave and wise Leaders will have the capacities to resist such grave political arm twistings and ofcourse ward off  temptations of secured power in luxury comfort which works wonders with many corrupted leaders  of third world nations. Most never lived long enough to enjoy the guarantees  of power and wealth.

India is backed by America and American stooge Japanese Government. Perhaps India wants Bhutan to tell China that " no more Bilateral Bhutan- China Border Talks unless Indian representative is included whilst discussing Doklam issue between China and Bhutan."  This was angled in Indian News report.  It is a rediculous and preposterous proposition. Did India insist upon China that Bhutan must be represented when India and China settled their international boundaries at the Doklam tri- junction?

Bhutan is supposed to host the 25th Border Talks with China this year.  Now India may be directing Bhutan to stall the Talks unless Indian terms are met. China will never agree to discuss terms of  Bhutan- China Border Settlement with India. And Bhutan should not accept such bullying from the Indo- American duo.

So what happens hereafter. We in Bhutan can only guess again. 

1. Probably Bhutan will not invite China for the 25th round of Bhutan- China Border Talks and sign the Border Settlement. Thus confirming the political subservient status of Bhutan and her leaders to India.

Bhutan had, under this Government, already cancelled Southern Bhutan Highway construction and signed BBIN at the insistence of India. One more submission to Indian authority especially with General Election coming up round the corner soon, may be good Party political decision. Hard to predict. I just hope that my belief that PM Tshering Tobgay will never betray RISUM GOENPOS of Haa,  does not turn out to be my own self delusion. 

2. China will realise that Bhutanese leaders will utimately side with India in its antagonistic policies towards China. This year India had invaded China using Bhutanese territory.  China will never allow that to happen again.

3. Therefore, through the length of Bhutan -China Border, China will fortify her defence positions. What were temporary camps will become permanent and areas that were rarely patrolled will see continuous presence of their force. China will take all precautions to prevent  another Doklam type transgression by Indian Army from Bhutanese territories.

4. There maybe a possibility of real catastrophic consequences if Bhutanese authority fails to firmly turn down Indian Army wish to put Indian Army Mountain Brigades into Haa Valley thus  converting our western most  Dzongkhag into Indian Chumbi Valley. Again it is an idea floated in Indian media. 

5 . Such hints in Indian  media  probably originates from sources within Indian Government. And such public rumours will further create trust deficit between China and Bhutan.  A China wary of Bhutanese national intention will naturally cause Bhutan to  fall more into the Indian orbit of control. The Bhutan- India re- negotiated Treaty of 2007 may not be changed in words but for all practical purpose, it may just be reduced to a piece of glorified toothless document. 

Already Indian political leaders and army generals have claimed that 2007 renegotiated 1949 Bhutan - India Treaty made Bhutan a protectorate state of India and therefore,  Indian Army had the right to march into Bhutan without being asked as they did at Doklam. India could very well again use Bhutanese territory  to attack China.  

6.  Both America and India know that China will never negotiate with India about Bhutan- China Border Settlement. Thus the objective is only to retain Bhutan totally under India's dominance. In other words,  India and America will do everything ( physically threaten or politically bribe) to reduce Bhutan into an Indian " Protectorate state " forever.

Bhutan at people level have no way of knowing how the political storm from India is affecting the Kingdom. But if Bhutan refuses to hold Talks with China this year and make serious moves to sign the Border Settlement then for sure the storm would turn out to quite a doom for the Kingdom's future.

May Triple Gem protect the future of our country and we the people. Palden Drukpa! Lha Gyel Lo ! 


  1. Thanks to Wangcha Sangay for being so concerned about this new development. Hope our leaders have the wisdom to sense this trap. Wherever America goes it brings death and destruction where as China brings trade and investments wherever it sets its foot.

  2. China is a global power, a reality..... Bhutan and China are neighbors..... neighbors need to have a cordial relationship......
    In short I am in support of a diplomatic relationship between China and Bhutan but not at the cost of India and Bhutan relationship....
    We need China’ warmth and friendship as well....��

  3. We pray for Bhutan! When these two are teamed up nothing good comes out. That's what happened to Dalai Lama. When he left Tibet in 1959, I bet he never thought he would never be able to return. After all, there were this "world's most powerful superpower" and the "world's largest democracy" directly behind to support and direct him. Wangcha, I think you are right. After tasting how it is like to be a gunman, India is now doing what the U.S. and Japan have been doing for a long time. And this is that what, and it have been very clear in the eyes of ordinary world citizens, without the need of any inside information. The East China Sea used to be very quiet. The U.S has been telling Japan: take up a gun to fight China, and I will be behind you. So Japan tried, and it lost control of the Diaoyu Island, and got a newly established Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone at its doorstep. China never fired a single shot. Japan then has been telling the U.S.: China is bad, take a gun and go shoot China yourself, I will support you. In return the U.S. has been researching the possibility of re-stationing its forces to Guam so that Japan can be the one to face the first wave of casualty. The South China Sea used to be very quiet. Then the U.S. has been telling the Philippines and Vet Nam: go challenge China. Then Vet Nam and the Philippines tried, and they got to see the largest islands popping up in the South China Sea. They were Chinese manmade and were basically unsinkable military bases on the sea, to look over every ship passing through, without the Chinese firing a single shot. The Korea peninsula had several episodes when the North and the South were on a path of reconciliation, a process with potential outcomes welcomed by China. Then we all knew what happened, and then happened again, again, leading to the nuclear dilemma they are in today. Then India volunteered to be the new gunman. The U.S. told India: pay me and I will support your invasion into China. India paid and then tried the invasion at Doklam, but did not get much support. And that alarmed China to strengthen military deployment in the long neglected and largely peaceful areas near India. Now India has gotten smarter and is probably thinking: huh, I was stupid, why didn't I turn Bhutan into the gunman so I could just stay behind? The U.S. does not care who is harassing China as long as there is someone, especially when India is backing away....therefore the joint visit to Bhutan. I have no idea what India is thinking. By volunteering as a U.S. gunman, it has moved Russia's cheese also, so the logic of doing what India is doing is very hard to understand. As for Bhutan, the question is, are your leaders really able to stand up for the country, or are they just concerned with their own personal gains?

    1. While the US does want to contain China I highly doubt that the US told India to invade China. The Doklam transgression happened during Modi's visit to the US. I think the more likely scenario is that Modi complained to Trump the usual nonsense of China bullying India, that India is a democracy while China is not, that India and the US share values...etc. and Trump probably responded saying that the US will not allow China bullying India and Modi took that as a holy writ and initiate the Doklam transgression. As event has transpired the US remain neutral throughout the standoff and Modi must have felt at the very least a little bit of betrayal from the US. India is desperate to give the impression to its neighbors that India and US are on the same side but the real situation is more complicated than that. Granted the US and India has increasing military cooperation but to a large extent this is because the US sees India as a big buyer of its weapons.

      Trump will be visiting China this November and China probably includes the briefing of the Doklam standoff to the US as part of Trumps agenda in China. US Acting Ambassador in India visiting of Bhutan at this moment is probably on a fact finding mission to prepare Trump's visit to China. I am in conjecture territory here but this is what I think happened behind the scene.

    2. Mantou, you might be right. Indian news media could be desperate to find indications of the U.S. being behind India in an I win you lose zero sum game. The truth is, it's much better for Bhutan as well as India if that's not true. China always wants to play a win win game so that would be the wrong prescription for any Indian concerns anyways. Let's hope you're right!

  4. Are you sure this is a join visit between the Indian foreign Secretary and United States Acting Ambassador in India to Bhutan? I went to the twitter account of Mary Kay Loss Carlson and all I saw was photos of her posing with various Bhutanese including the King but never mention anything about India.

    If the source is from India then you should be highly skeptical of its veracity. Indian media has proven itself to be highly manipulative and deceiving.

  5. India has been friends with Bhutan since long and helping Bhutan both in infrastructure and economy. India has nothing to gain from Bhutan. Well if u feel Bhutan should break partnership with India and join China .....then please do so. Please remember what China is doing with Tibet. It will do the same to Bhutan. My prayers r always there for the people if Bhutan because i have been there and seen the warmth. So go befriend China at your own countrys expense

    1. Another zero-sum argument. It looks like Indians and her supporters are afraid of peaceful competition from China - which will benefit Bhutan tremendously.

  6. Hope our farsighted Wangchuck Dynasty, tripple gem and the deities would lead us to the right path.....I have great faith in them.

  7. India has become bottle neck in the settlement of boundary issue between Bhutan and China. Also India is bottle neck in the establishment of diplomatic relation between Bhutan and China.

    If India feels it should be part of the tri-junction talk, then first it should get China agreed. Why India wants to instigate Bhutan from behind to do so and put Bhutan in a difficult situation?

    But there is no reason for India to be part of the tri- junction talk since any shifting of the tri-junction point will be along the China-India or Bhutan- India boundary line only without encroaching tri-junction point inside India. Only either one of Bhutan or China may lose or gain areas because of the tri-junction point shifting.

  8. I think dasho's point number 6 answers your question...

  9. Wangcha's Entire Analysis is Filled With India Hate & China Bonhomie as He follows the Course of Going Closer to China Like Former PM of Bhutan Jigmey Thinly....India Will Counter China Militarily Leading to Indian Ocean and South China Sea...So Any Settlement After All these Years of Asking India's Support and Friendships and Now Just being Scared of China or May be Selfish Motif to become it's Lapdog cannot have any takers in India...How CHINA gobbled Up Tibet and Uses its Water Resources and Conducts All its Nuclear Tests in that Region While keeping it Poor and Subservient to PLA control is Conveniently Forgotten by this Gent...Is He Also a China Agent in Bhutan?

    1. Lying is what Indian do best. Bhutan will do a lot better if they were as "Poor" as today's Tibetans. India's GDP per capital is 17% less than Bhutan. For your information, Tibetans in Nepal are now proud owners of Chinese passports. Indian want its neighbors to be poor, and so it can subjugate them to its ill will and dumping its over breeding mess on to them, and take over their land. We know your drill.

  10. India cannot beat China. I can tell you that with 100% certainty. You're digging your own grave if you do that. you annex Bhutan, China will intervene. the bottom line is China considers Bhutan equally important as much as bloody India. Bhutan is a buffer country to China. so they will protect Bhutan from India. In other words, they won't let India take over Bhutan. If they do, it will cost them geopolitically, economically, and politically. No doubt about that. Moreover, China will not want to lose any more neighbors to India like they forewent in the past, Sikkim in particular because of the circumstances. They were fighting the civil wars and India took advantage of that. People of Bhutan are wary of India's intention and Bhutan will never let that happened to the contrary. We will never surrender or submit without to India without an all-out fight to the finish. lets see who survives or perishes.. i am pretty confidence, China will intervene if India uses Bhutan to invade China once again like they used Doklam to invade China in June this year. Annexing Bhutan is a direct declaration of war on China. They will annex Bhutan as a gunman of America and Japan to invade China, with a promise to support india in return fighting their common enemy. marching the army into Bhutan is a declaration of war on China. This gives China reason to intervene on Bhutan side. if there is a war, it has to been all-out war and must be decisive. Bhutan will closed the borders in south with India until India agrees to build friendship on equal terms and footing. if 2007 revised treaty of indo-Bhutan friendship treaty makes bhutan protectorate state of India and gives them the right to use Bhutan to invade China, then Bhutan has the option to accept the package deal offered by China. Bhutan will hold the 25 rounds of border talk with China, and resolve our borders with china. if you bully us with military threat and the economic sanctions or the border transit, we have the option to accept the fatty package deal and closed the border talks with China once and for all. this means agreeing on the point of trijunction china wanted in exchange for this package deal. you american lapdog. Fight China alone if you have a guts or resources or warfare technology to match them...don't force Bhutan to play nasty game with you. you can never win from Bhutan. if you sink us we will drag china to sink you as well. no doubt about that.. China will never force on Bhutanese people like you do but they respect people's will. if China is not good you arent any better. maybe worse..

  11. Do not expect Chinese to be NICE to Bhutan anymore.

    1. Tibet has got high-speed trains, highways, airports, universities, hospitals, schools, billions of investment as well as millions of tourists, which it did not have before, under the rule of communist China.

      What do people in Assam, Nagaland, Manipur and other Northeastern states get from the "world largest democracy" India?

    2. Btw, a Tibetan guy Tasha Puntsok just won the TV show "SING!CHINA S2" (Chinese version of Voice of America) on 13.10.2017: (final competition);
      The compilation of his songs (Tibetan and Mandarin aka standard Chinese):

      Curious: can Bhutanese understand Tibetan without learning each other's languages?

  12. I mistook Bhutan's arch foe for a friend. they seek to swallow and dissolve us like a medicine in the soluble water. however, I want to be the bitter pill to swallow and a lethal poison to kill them instantly bubbling out like a venomous snake bite and a razor-sharp bone to struck in the throat to prick them every time they drink or eat and make them suffer like a hungry ghost with its neck slimmer than a tiny needle, without water or food. and the morsel of food they eat or drink turn them into repulsive puss and the blood. they must eventually perish and the death is slow and painful. may i become the cause of their downfall and the hell of ultimate torture to punish for their follies. may I turned myself into water less desert to burn them with the fire of thirst forever. and I want to be the hell of ultimate torture to incarcerate them forever in the bottom of the cold dungeon for countless eons and roast them like a barbecue under the intense heat of the hot hell and melt them like an iron ore in the cauldron in the burning hell, and freeze them like a like refrigerator in the cold hell.
    now i am beginning to understand why "enemy is not born but made in this world."

    may the oath-bound deities of Bhutan take on the task of hunting down the dissents until they exist no more to harm us.

    Palden Drukpa Gyello!

  13. India has turned out to be a very untrustworthy neighbour for Bhutan. For their own interest, they have mercilessly used Bhutan. Any proposal from India would have a hidden agenda behind so much so that they won't care if Bhutan's soverignity is at stake. India must keep away from Bhutan and withdraw all their Imtrat and leave Bhutan. We Bhutanese must raise our voice and kick out Indians from our country. Bhutan and China has historical link in trade and commerce and religion. Since Cultural revolution, Bhutan closed border with China but now it is over, we cannot keep away from trade and link between China and Bhutan. It is time India realize that they are going against the wall if their plan is to stop us from being friend with China.

  14. India must open their eyes and respect the 2007 bilateral agreement and stop interfering in Bhutan's relation with other neighbors. That way India will earn respect from the people of Bhutan and the relationship will sustain in perpetuity.

  15. I believe Bhutan-India relationship is sacrosanct and not on the menu for post-mortem. However, ground realities may coax us to undertake matured and unbiased deliberation on this topic. One of the important ground realities is our economic dependence on India....this is unequivocal whereby India pulls the different strings. Some may share.....why this equation....we will look west, north, east etc....but ultimately we need to accept geography and geo-politics.