Indian foreign Secretary and United States Acting Ambassador in India made a joint visit to Bhutan during the 1st week of October. There is a photo of Mr. Jaishankar with His Majesty the King in Kuensel issue but nothing about the context of his visit.
The foreign Secretary of India met with His Majesty the King and the Fourth Druk Gyalpo as well as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Bhutan.
Bhutan was silent about the visit of the American Acting Ambassador at the same time as that of the Indian foreign secretary.
There must be many reasons for their joint visit. But core objective has to be containing China which means curtailing Bhutanese national freedom in external affairs and restricting internal policies and administration.
India is a vast democratic nation and therefore, the Indian media carried news of what Secretary Jaishankar accompanied by his Joint Secretary who looks after Bhutan and Nepal Desks could be discussing with Bhutanese top leaders. Here in Bhutan, we can only sort of guess what America and India wants Bhutan to do and what they may have promised in return.
I believe it has to be a " carrot and stick " offer from India. I did not know of the Acting American Ambassador visit until the news in Indian media and tweet from the lady herself ( MaryKay Loss Carlson ). America would have offered the usual game of " cat and mouse ". Her offer is same to all weak tiny " political toys " of America.
India's carrots could consist of some relief in debt volume. Some dangling of better terms in hydropower deals and electrical sale price and immediate relief in stuck up old Indian rupee notes in RMA vaults. And ofcourse guaranteed tenure for the most amenable Political Party in 2018. Plus less stoking of religious and ethnic sentiments among the Bhutanese national society.
And finally the axe offer of assurance of all deep respects for our Royal Institution. That would be in real essence somewhere along the line that the Indian Army Commanding General ( after his visit to Bhutan ) had on his fb wall to quote, " helping rulers to rule " under the photo of him with the Fourth Druk Gyalpo. He personally did not write the statement. He just retained on his wall someone's else' s caption/ comment.
The brashness and cruelty of America and India to squeeze this mountain Kingdom of ours just to satisfy their politics of slighting China is beyond political nastiness. It's bloody strangulation of Bhutan. Bhutan for them is only a pawn to snub China. They do not care what happens to Bhutan and her people. For them it is ' just use and throw away ' at their national convenience.
I pray that our Deities and our brave and wise Leaders will have the capacities to resist such grave political arm twistings and ofcourse ward off temptations of secured power in luxury comfort which works wonders with many corrupted leaders of third world nations. Most never lived long enough to enjoy the guarantees of power and wealth.
India is backed by America and American stooge Japanese Government. Perhaps India wants Bhutan to tell China that " no more Bilateral Bhutan- China Border Talks unless Indian representative is included whilst discussing Doklam issue between China and Bhutan." This was angled in Indian News report. It is a rediculous and preposterous proposition. Did India insist upon China that Bhutan must be represented when India and China settled their international boundaries at the Doklam tri- junction?
Bhutan is supposed to host the 25th Border Talks with China this year. Now India may be directing Bhutan to stall the Talks unless Indian terms are met. China will never agree to discuss terms of Bhutan- China Border Settlement with India. And Bhutan should not accept such bullying from the Indo- American duo.
So what happens hereafter. We in Bhutan can only guess again.
1. Probably Bhutan will not invite China for the 25th round of Bhutan- China Border Talks and sign the Border Settlement. Thus confirming the political subservient status of Bhutan and her leaders to India.
Bhutan had, under this Government, already cancelled Southern Bhutan Highway construction and signed BBIN at the insistence of India. One more submission to Indian authority especially with General Election coming up round the corner soon, may be good Party political decision. Hard to predict. I just hope that my belief that PM Tshering Tobgay will never betray RISUM GOENPOS of Haa, does not turn out to be my own self delusion.
2. China will realise that Bhutanese leaders will utimately side with India in its antagonistic policies towards China. This year India had invaded China using Bhutanese territory. China will never allow that to happen again.
3. Therefore, through the length of Bhutan -China Border, China will fortify her defence positions. What were temporary camps will become permanent and areas that were rarely patrolled will see continuous presence of their force. China will take all precautions to prevent another Doklam type transgression by Indian Army from Bhutanese territories.
4. There maybe a possibility of real catastrophic consequences if Bhutanese authority fails to firmly turn down Indian Army wish to put Indian Army Mountain Brigades into Haa Valley thus converting our western most Dzongkhag into Indian Chumbi Valley. Again it is an idea floated in Indian media.
5 . Such hints in Indian media probably originates from sources within Indian Government. And such public rumours will further create trust deficit between China and Bhutan. A China wary of Bhutanese national intention will naturally cause Bhutan to fall more into the Indian orbit of control. The Bhutan- India re- negotiated Treaty of 2007 may not be changed in words but for all practical purpose, it may just be reduced to a piece of glorified toothless document.
Already Indian political leaders and army generals have claimed that 2007 renegotiated 1949 Bhutan - India Treaty made Bhutan a protectorate state of India and therefore, Indian Army had the right to march into Bhutan without being asked as they did at Doklam. India could very well again use Bhutanese territory to attack China.
6. Both America and India know that China will never negotiate with India about Bhutan- China Border Settlement. Thus the objective is only to retain Bhutan totally under India's dominance. In other words, India and America will do everything ( physically threaten or politically bribe) to reduce Bhutan into an Indian " Protectorate state " forever.
Bhutan at people level have no way of knowing how the political storm from India is affecting the Kingdom. But if Bhutan refuses to hold Talks with China this year and make serious moves to sign the Border Settlement then for sure the storm would turn out to quite a doom for the Kingdom's future.
May Triple Gem protect the future of our country and we the people. Palden Drukpa! Lha Gyel Lo !