Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Donald Trump, Taiwan and Mainland China.

In the present political scenario, one might be tempted to assume that American President Elect Donald Trump would be relinquishing the One China Policy once he takes over the reign of United States Policies.

America is the only Super Power and she is quite powerful. However, now the world has undergone so much changes. So America is like the spider in the world web. The spider weaves the web but it cannot destroy the web without making itself homeless. Thus as President, Donald Trump cannot pursue nor can he achieve two China policy if he attempts.

America could start aggressively arming Taiwan and declare her intention to honour the security pact signed with Taiwan. The consequence of such a foreign policy would only hasten the demise of Taiwanese present national status. There is no way the mainland Chinese Government will give in to American attempt to enforce two China equation. As costly as it maybe, China will march into Taiwan if Donald Trump attempts to break away Taiwan from China. I had expressed the same opinion when some Americans and European politicians called for war to oust Russia from Crimea.

Taiwan will be part of one China whether Donald Trump likes it or not. Presiden Trump will have no choice but to adhere to the one China policy. His present expression of annoyance with China is only to cover up the fiasco of his ill advised direct contact with Taiwanese President. Some political commentators say that Trump is testing China and his present stands as President Elect is a deliberate strategy to weigh out Chinese strength and seriousness. I would disagree. It is too early to have had the  time and energy to devote to such a strategy. 

America, China and Russia cannot afford any direct aggressive confrontation of large consequences. They have much to lose and so little to again. Thus America under President Trump will not be wasting her time and armed forces to make Taiwan a different China. I cannot even imagine a large scale trade war between America and China. Major Cabinet posts under Trump are taken up by known  industrial and Commerce figures not war hawks. So it all points towards better world trade and prosperous economy. Not wars and destructions caused by  the past policies of  American Administrations.

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