Saturday, November 28, 2015

International Politics: NATO versus Russia.

Turkey shot down a Russian bomber which was an easy and unsuspecting target for US supplied Fighter planes. Turkey said it gave warnings 10 times in a time span of 5 minutes and also admitted that the Russian plane transgressed Turkey air space just for 17 seconds. It had to be considered a miraculous feat  to be able to give 10 warnings over 5 minutes time span during a 17 second air space intrusion.

The warnings must have been pre- recorded with the 2 airborne Turkish F16s waiting for the Russian bomber plane to approach Turkish border.  The Bomber crashed. The 2 crew of pilot and navigator managed to bail out. However, they were shot at whilst parachuting down by Turkey sponsored Extremist group. The pilot was killed and his body yet to be recovered. The navigator survived and he denied encroaching into Turkey air space or getting any warnings. So it turns out that the Turkey Extremist group was under orders to eliminate the 2 Russian air borne crews for good to prevent facts from surfacing. That's why they were shooting at the two parachuting crews. Normally the crews would be more valuable alive as bargaining chips but here the stake was higher.

Turkey now says that had they known it was a Russian plane the , " warning would have been different ". It looks like a planned attack probably with American knowledge as it had the flight plans of the Russian bomber. Turkey had to have the advance knowledge of the flight plans of the Russian bombers to have instantly fired when the planes were closest to their border. Otherwise the Russian ground monitoring team would have noticed the threat and responded.

Since Russian entry in the Syrian conflict, two major incidents have occurred. A bomb was placed in a Russian Passenger plane from an airport of Egypt which is militarily funded by America and Saudi Arabia. Egypt a Muslim Country would have ISIS sympathisers aplenty who would act once allowed to be out of security radar by Egyptian Authorities.  And then Turkey a NATO member executed a surprise attack to down the Russian plane.

President Erdogan of Turkey defiantly calls on Russia ," Not to play with fire ". Many, however, think that Erdogan has ignited a  flame too large for Turkey to control. Russia was never a threat to Turkey. She has been a very close and vital economic friend of Turkey. And Russia does not betray friends as proved in her solid backing of Syrian Government in the face of over whelming odds. Russian lives are being sacrificed for Syrian friendship. And Russia certainly will not lie " calm " against " back stabbers "

Now what is to happen? Russian vulnerability has been demonstrated possibly to make Russia wary of venturing beyond Ukraine. But most nations including America is exposed to such flank attacks. So such subversive attacks can very well be played by both sides to disastrous effects.

NATO has hastily called for " calm ". But can the victim remain calm? That's too much to ask Russia to calm down in the aftermath of her passenger plane with all Russian passengers blown to pieces and now her bomber shot down by an undeclared enemy from amongst neutral group,  on an questionable pretext of supposed 17 seconds air space violation. Provocation is writ large. The consequence yet to fathom for all the participants and world politics in general.

America was quick to declare that she had nothing to do with Turkish attack on the Russian plane. NATO seems internally divided. France may view Turkey action a sabotage to her effort to build a united front including Russia against ISIS after the Paris massacres. Britain is not even involved in the Syrian conflict. So why did Turkey shoot down the Russian plane? Is it a sign of over confidence of the Turkish President who won a thumping reelection very recently? Is it Turkey armed forces signalling divisive factors with civilian authority ?

The President of Turkey is a seasoned Leader who did not need any such ego boosting drama like shooting down a non threatening plane in a conflict zone for a supposed mere overflight of 17 seconds duration. He had to know the hostile consequences as well as the economic mathematics of friendly ties with Russia. And now why is he trying so hard to get a one to one meeting with Putin ?

The real story may not be shared in public  for quite sometime to come. However, in private, maybe, some honest explanations would be forthcoming during the proposed meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Turkey. One agenda of the Meeting would be of course the recovery of the body of the Russian pilot from the Turkey funded Extremist group in Syria. And next would be what Turkey achieved out of the hostile act and what is Russia obliged to respond as a nation which had been attacked by a NATO member.

Warsaw Pact is no more so Russia stands alone against NATO. Historically the Russian Bear have withstood whatever the challenges thrown up by rest of Europe. Does an American backed Europe think that it will have better fortune than Napoleon and Hitler. I have lot of doubts about American Europe's capability to physically overpower Russia. Its not a media game of more Newspapers,Television channels and well cushioned news anchors displaying macho flairs from studios.   Its bullet and bombs and human lives of real Russian, European and American. Not a proxy war with other nation soldiers and civilian populations' lives on the alter.

So far none have matched the sacrifice and courage of Russians. Remember Russia lost more men than Allied combined during the WWII. And it was Russia that broke the backbone of Nazi war machineries. It was Russian forces that marched into Berlin first. The Allied Forces under British and American leadership were more anxious of Russian Might than defeating Hitler towards the end game.

Since Ukraine, many American war hawks have been calling upon NATO to declare  war against Russia. Turkey could have been prodded to fire the first salvo.  Now is NATO going to come out in the open? Seems unlikely with NATO key European members playing hide and seek game with America. Germany did not even support wholeheartedly the American led sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. Britain had voted No to American request to join Syrian war and now France the yes man of America in Europe wants to fight ISIS not Russia. And America alone or combined with Allies like Japan and Australia and reluctant Europe does not have the financial, human or material resources to start a war with Russia and contain China at the same time.

So President Erdogan of the great nation of Turks will find himself alone in the midst of the flame of the Russian plane that he ordered to be fired upon. Sooner or later the people of Turkey will realise that the missile attack on the Russian plane had very little to do with Turkish nationalism. The initial emotional fire of sovereignty will give way to being played a pawn in a larger game of a Super Power. Erdogan may be confronted with an election sooner than he ever planned.

1 comment:

  1. An alliance with Moscow is no longer possible. That train has already pulled out. Turkey acted as Washington's hit man in shooting down the Russian jet. Washington gave Turkey the airplane's flight coordinates, and the Syrian F-16's were already in the air preparing ahead for the attack. Now Turkey is amassing forces at the Syrian border, again on Washington' instructions, and the British are about to enter the fight. It's foolish to look to Obama for direction. He's a weak president who has no control over this. It's 1939. Get ready for major war.